Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
